Racing Insights: Who Will Score Their First 2025 Win?

Halfway through the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, only eight drivers have earned a win and clinched a provisional playoff spot. In recent weeks, three of the last four drivers to win have claimed their first victory of the year, showing that the competition remains wide open.

Attention now shifts to Nashville Superspeedway, where the upcoming Cracker Barrel 400 marks just the fifth Cup race at the 1.33-mile concrete track. With the race set for Sunday evening, several drivers are in position to change the course of their season.

Among the most prominent winless names are Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, and Chase Elliott. Each drives for powerhouse organizations but has yet to secure a victory this year.

While strong points positions would put them in playoff contention if the season ended now, relying on consistency over the next 13 weeks is a risk. A win is always the safest way to guarantee a postseason berth.

Chase Elliott has put together a solid run so far, finishing every event inside the top 20, with seven top-10 finishes. The 2020 Cup Series champion already has two career wins on concrete surfaces, including a victory at Nashville in 2022.

Hendrick Motorsports, Elliott’s team, leads all others this year in poles (five), top-fives (19), top-10s (31), laps led (1,706), and stage wins (14). With that momentum, Elliott is expected to break his winless streak soon.

Ryan Blaney’s season has been hampered by five DNFs, tied for most in the series. Despite the bad luck, statistical models show Blaney leads the Cup field in both long-run speed and passing ability.

Last year at Nashville, he finished sixth after an intense, overtime-filled finish, and his best at the track was third in 2022. However, two of his Nashville starts ended early due to crashes, reflecting the unpredictable results still possible.

Chase Briscoe is also chasing his first win of 2025 and adjusting to his new Joe Gibbs Racing team. Although he called the relationship a learning process, he responded with his second pole of the year and a third-place finish in a challenging race.

Historically, Nashville has been tough for Briscoe—his average finish there is 29.3—but all four prior Cup starts at the track were with Stewart-Haas Racing. In stronger equipment, he’s recently posted three top-four results in five races, potentially setting up a breakthrough.

Other drivers could also shake up the results. Bubba Wallace’s average finish of 13.5 at Nashville makes it one of his top tracks, though he will be seeking a rebound after three difficult races.

Ryan Preece has reached two career wins at Nashville in the Truck Series and is enjoying a strong season with RFK Racing, holding the last playoff spot. AJ Allmendinger, fresh off a fourth-place finish in the 600, has four top-10s this season and past success at Nashville in Xfinity competition.

Rookie Corey Heim, recently the youngest driver to reach 15 Truck Series wins, will make his second Cup start of 2025 and hopes to continue his impressive progress.

Racing Insights’ latest statistical projections for the Cracker Barrel 400 point toward favorites like Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell. Chase Elliott is forecasted to finish fourth, with Blaney and Byron also inside the top six.

Drivers such as Briscoe, Wallace, and Allmendinger round out the projected top finishers, indicating the fight for a first win will be fierce. With the playoff race tightening, Nashville promises to be a pivotal event for drivers aiming to secure their spot in the 2025 postseason.

The event’s characteristics continue to test drivers, similar to technical challenges faced on road courses.