Data Shows Josef Newgarden and Pato O’Ward Dominate Oval Tracks

Josef Newgarden heads to the Borchetta Bourbon Music City Grand Prix on Sunday targeting a third 2026 win, armed with the most formidable oval record in the NTT IndyCar Series.

Since 2021 he has won 13 of the past 30 oval races, a 43% hit rate that reframes expectations. Only Pato O’Ward has kept pace, albeit distantly, with four victories.

All of Newgarden’s last 10 series wins have come on ovals, underlining a package built around traffic management, stint length, and pit execution at sustained 200mph speeds.

The non‑oval picture differs, where Alex Palou and specialists such as Christian Lundgaard often reset the hierarchy, as test patterns at Mid‑Ohio have underscored.

But when the calendar turns to high‑grip concrete or short‑oval abrasion, Newgarden and Team Penske usually control variables better than rivals, from aero‑trim choices to undercut windows.

Among the challengers, Pato O’Ward provides the most consistent threat. They have finished first and second nine times since 2020, including seven oval duels at Gateway, Iowa, Texas, and the 2024 Indianapolis 500.

O’Ward struck against Newgarden at Texas in 2021 and Iowa in 2023, but Newgarden has dictated more of the decisive late stints across this cycle.

On sub‑1.5‑mile ovals his edge is stark: 12 wins from 26 since 2019. O’Ward owns three in that span and four oval wins overall, plus frequent top‑five finishes.

Experience still matters. Scott Dixon leads active drivers with 25 oval wins and previously swept Nashville three straight from 2006 to 2008, despite ranking 11th on this year’s oval ledger.

Newgarden holds 20 career oval victories, second among active drivers. Will Power sits on 10 after an Iowa win that extended a recent sequence of top‑10 finishes.

Scott McLaughlin has matured into a short‑oval specialist, banking two 2024 victories and 15 top‑five results from 20 short‑oval starts, plus third at the Indianapolis 500.

Beyond the headline names, Rossi, Rahal, Palou, Kirkwood, Ericsson, and Rasmussen have won ovals since 2021, with Helio Castroneves and Colton Herta adding recent successes.

Penske’s institutional strength underpins Newgarden’s form. The team leads IndyCar’s oval wins with 130, comfortably clear of Ganassi and Andretti, reflecting depth across strategy, pit stops, and car development.

Despite that backdrop, the season’s oval‑only points table is led by David Malukas on 116, showing how consistency across limited events can challenge headline win rates.

Newgarden sits nine points back, with Scott McLaughlin and Felix Rosenqvist holding third in the oval standings, giving Team Penske three of the top four on this subset leaderboard.

Form into Nashville looks robust. Newgarden won there last year and this season at Phoenix Raceway and World Wide Technology Raceway, the clearest reference for pace and traffic resilience.

O’Ward’s window remains live; if Arrow McLaren qualifies ahead and manages clean air, recent history shows he can convert on late restarts or long green‑flag runs.

With veterans sharpening margins and newcomers closing gaps, the oval pecking order stays volatile. Newgarden and O’Ward remain the benchmark others must chase into Nashville.

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Brian Thompson

Brian Thompson focuses on IndyCar Series news, from qualifying speeds at Indianapolis Motor Speedway to street-course race strategy. He delivers concise feature stories and technical breakdowns on chassis setups, tire choices, and championship standings for open-wheel enthusiasts.