Guenther Steiner predicts Max Verstappen will finish 2026 without a victory, arguing Red Bull lacks the performance to beat Mercedes and McLaren over a race distance.

The four-time champion sits sixth on 145 points, 147 behind leader Kimi Antonelli. Second places in Austria, Hungary, and Spain headline his results, underscoring Red Bull’s current ceiling.

Steiner’s view centres on raw pace. He frames the deficit as structural rather than operational, echoing his recent remarks explored in analysis of his stance and its reception.

Verstappen still converts opportunities. In Spain, he rose to second by exploiting Lando Norris’s slow stop and a timely virtual safety car, but outright race-winning pace remained absent.

The competitive pattern repeats at venues that reward track position. Baku’s long straights and narrow sections limit passes, amplifying qualifying and execution for the upcoming Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

Verstappen concedes the pace shortfall. “Looking at the lap times, we are quite a bit down still,” he told Sky Sports, citing deployment and chassis performance as key weaknesses.

Those comments track with ongoing development threads and reported car characteristics Verstappen wants addressed, especially energy deployment and traction phases.

Mercedes and McLaren currently define the benchmark. Their cars deliver balance across corner types and strong energy usage, creating sustainable tyre management and cleaner stint profiles.

Red Bull must evolve rapidly to reclaim race-winning margins. That demands aerodynamic gains and improved power unit deployment, plus correlation confidence to unlock set-up range.

Red Bull’s target likely shifts to opportunistic wins and consolidating podiums. Track-specific strengths and flawless operations can convert chances when rivals falter.

For Verstappen, a winless year would be a major break from recent dominance. Yet his execution level remains high, and his racecraft continues to limit points damage.

Baku should clarify the pecking order. Any upgrade step that improves straight-line efficiency and stability in traction zones could narrow the deficit meaningfully.

The season remains finely poised at the front. Whether Red Bull can pivot development quickly enough will decide if Steiner’s prediction stands through the run-in.

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Daniel Miller

Daniel Miller reports on Formula 1 Grand Prix weekends with race-day analysis, team-radio highlights, and point-standings updates. He explains power-unit upgrades, aerodynamic developments, and driver rivalries in straightforward, SEO-friendly language for a global F1 audience.